Supply levels improve, taking some pressure off prices

With the busy spring market behind us, we are starting to see some shifts in supply levels. With 2,380 sales and 3,604 new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio fell to 66 per cent, supporting a gain in inventory.

Inventories rose to 4,158 units, still 33 per cent below what we typically see in July, but the first time they have pushed above 4,000 units in nearly two years. Although the majority of supply growth occurred for homes priced above $600,000, the rise has helped shift the market away from the extreme sellers’ market conditions experienced throughout the spring.

“While we are still dealing with supply challenges, especially for lower-priced homes, more options in both the new home and resale market have helped take some of the upward pressure off home prices this month,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB^®. “This is in line with our expectations for the second half of the year, and should inventories continue to rise, we should start to see more balanced conditions and stability in home prices.”

July sales eased by 10 per cent over last year's record high but were still higher than long-term trends for the month. Like last month, the pullback in sales has been driven by homes priced below $600,000. Nonetheless, the gain in inventory combined with slower sales caused the months of supply to rise to 1.8 months, still low enough to favour the seller but a significant improvement from the under one month reported earlier this year.

Improved supply helped slow the pace of monthly price growth for each property type. In July, the total residential benchmark price was $606,700, similar to last month and nearly eight per cent higher than last year's levels.

Detached

Detached home sales in July fell by eight per cent, as the 15 per cent rise for homes priced above $600,000 was not enough to offset the 50 per cent decline occurring in the lower price ranges. The decline in the lower price ranges reflects limited availability as inventories and new listings continue to fall for lower-priced homes. Year-to-date detached sales have eased by just over one per cent compared to last year.

With 1,098 sales and 1,721 new listings this month, inventories rose to 1,950 units. Inventories are still low based on historical levels, but the gain did help push the months of supply up to nearly two months and supports some stability in prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in July was $767,800, similar to last month but 11 per cent higher than last July.

Semi-Detached

Relative affordability continues to attract purchasers to the semi-detached sector. While sales did slow slightly compared to last year, year-to-date sales reached 1,518 units, six per cent higher than last year. The growth in sales was possible thanks to gains in new listings. However, conditions remain relatively tight, with a 76 per cent sales-to-new listings ratio and months of supply of 1.5 months.

While the pace of monthly price growth has slowed, at an unadjusted benchmark price of $687,900, prices are nearly 12 per cent higher than last year. The highest price growth continues to occur in the city's most affordable North East and East districts.

Row

Gains in row new listings relative to a pullback in sales caused the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 73 per cent this month. This supported gains in inventory levels, and the months of supply rose to 1.3 months.

While conditions continue favouring the seller, the shift prevented further monthly price gains this month. Nonetheless, at a benchmark price of $464,200, levels are still nearly 15 per cent higher than last year. Year-over-year price gains have ranged from a low of 13 per cent in the City Centre and North districts to over 20 per cent in the North East and East districts.

Apartment Condominium

Sales in July slowed to 659 units, as a significant drop in sales occurred for properties priced below $300,000. Like the other property types, limited supply choices for the lower-priced units prevented stronger sales activity.

New listings in July were 1,043 units, high enough to cause the sales-to-new listings ratio to fall to 63 per cent. This supported inventory gains and months of supply of over two months. Improved supply relative to sales helped slow the pace of monthly price growth. However, the unadjusted benchmark price of $346,300 is still 17 per cent higher than levels reported last year at this time.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

New listings in July rose to 287 units, the highest level ever reported for July. At the same time, sales slowed to 186 units, supporting some gains in inventory levels. While inventories have improved, the 298 units are still 26 per cent lower than typical levels seen in July.

Inventory gains have occurred across most price ranges in Airdrie but conditions continue to remain relatively tight, especially in the lower price ranges of each property type. Overall, the unadjusted benchmark price in July was $553,900, similar to last month but eight per cent higher than last year's levels.

Cochrane

July sales improved over last year’s levels, contributing to the year-to-date gain of nearly eight per cent. While new listings also improved compared to last year in July, it was not enough to cause any significant shift from the low inventory levels.

With a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 83 per cent and months of supply of 1.5 months, the market remained relatively tight, and prices continued to rise. In July, the unadjusted benchmark price reached $576,600, nearly one per cent higher than last month and nine per cent higher than last year’s levels.

Okotoks

A pullback in sales relative to new listings helped support gains in higher inventory levels in Okotoks. While inventory levels are 25 per cent higher than last year, the 85 units still reflect exceptionally low inventory levels and are half the levels typically seen in July.

With a sales-to-new listings ratio of 78 per cent and months of supply of 1.3 months, conditions continue to favour the seller. While there have been some monthly price fluctuations, the unadjusted benchmark price in July reached $622,200, over six per cent higher than last July.

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Tagged: CREB® | Statistics | Housing Market