A CREB® 2018 Calgary Economic & Housing Outlook Mid-Year Update Summary

Stricter lending conditions, a rise in interest rates, persistently high unemployment and slow economic recovery have weighed on housing demand so far this year.

Net migration figures point to housing market bounce back

It's been a challenging year for Calgary's resale housing market, which is still feeling the effects of two recession years in 2015 and 2016.

While the economy has rebounded, it has been at a slow pace, and this has been evident in the real estate industry. As of the end of June, year-to-date MLS® System sales in the resale market totalled 8,553 units, down 17.1 per cent in the city compared with the same period a year ago.

Many Canadian energy-related municipalities within Alberta and Saskatchewan have seen housing markets struggle over the past few years, resulting in price declines.

The recent mortgage rule changes and higher lending rates are factors weighing on demand and prices across some of those areas.

A luxury market stats breakdown with CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie

CREB®Now: How do statistics for luxury homes fit into the overall housing market in Calgary?

Lurie: It's usually the media that defines what the luxury market is. What I see as luxury is different from everyone else. To me, this reflects properties that have sold for over $1 million, and these properties account for roughly four per cent of all our sales activity

May sales activity continued to ease, with the largest declines occurring in the detached sector. Additional gains in new listings continued to increase inventory levels.

Citywide sales activity in May totalled 1,726 units, 19 per cent below last year's levels and 24 per cent below longer-term averages. Sales activity in the detached sector declined to levels not seen in over a decade.

"The impact of rising lending rates and stricter qualification levels is causing demand to ease across all product types," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Economic growth forecasts paint cautiously optimistic picture for Calgary housing market

Calgary's housing market lives and breathes based on the whims of the city's overall economy.

While the city had an impressive gain of 6.9 per cent in economic growth in 2017 compared to 2016, according to the Conference Board of Canada, the economic engine will slow down this year and in 2019.

High-end housing market continues sluggish recovery, but slow sales bump up supply 

As a former long-time writer with the Calgary Herald focusing on the real estate beat, I knew how popular coverage of the real estate industry was to readers.

One aspect of the industry people always loved reading about was the city's luxury home market. So, I was curious how the high-end segment of the housing market has been faring lately.

Year-to-date sales – up to the end of April – of $1-million-plus properties totalled 204 transactions, which is down slightly from 211 during the same period a year ago, says Ann-Marie Lurie, chief economist with CREB®.

Prices steady, but struggles in Alberta economy weigh on housing

Changes to the lending industry and a challenging economic recovery are weighing on sales activity in Calgary's housing market.

Supply levels have not adjusted to the weaker demand environment, and that is preventing price recovery.

"Slower sales do not come as a surprise, given the economy has not yet improved enough to offset the impact of changes in the lending industry," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"While the rising inventories are being monitored, prices have remained relatively flat as gains in some areas of the city have been offset by declines in other areas."

Downtown office market begins bounce back

People who have lived and worked in Calgary for a long time know that the downtown office market is a great barometer of what's happening in the city's overall economy.

For the past couple of years, record vacancy rates in the heart of the city have made headline news, not only in Calgary, but nationally.

However, a recent report by commercial real estate firm Avison Young suggests we've hit the bottom and there's nowhere to go but up.

Prices remain stable compared to last year


As expected, slow sales this quarter have persisted through March in the City of Calgary. This is not a surprise, after stronger growth in sales at the end of last year following the announced changes to the lending market.

First quarter sales totaled 3,423 units, nearly 18 per cent below last year's levels and 24 per cent below long-term averages. Easing sales and modest gains in new listings caused inventories to rise and months of supply to remain above four months.