Despite a challenging year, 1995 CREB® president Wayne McAlister chose to focus on the silver linings

A self-described "eternal optimist," Wayne McAlister still couldn't be blamed for looking back at 1995 with some degree of pessimism.

After all, as CREB®'s president that year, he oversaw Calgary's housing industry at a time when employment uncertainty had waned for years, resulting in weak consumer confidence and a painfully slow market.

"There was a downturn in the early '90s, with oil down – dramatically low – and the whole economy was feeling the pinch," he said. "(By 1995), we were still experiencing an economic downturn. There was some good, some bad that year."

Lower-class spaces feeling brunt of energy downturn

Vacancy rates in Calgary's downtown office market have hit historic highs in 2016, and commercial real estate experts are forecasting further declines moving forward.

According to a second-quarter market report by Colliers International in Calgary, the overall vacancy rate in the core has jumped to more than 22 per cent from 20.5 per cent the previous quarter – the equivalent of 618,716 square feet of office space.

Vacancy rates between classes varied, but were steepest in the B-class at 31.8 per cent and C-class at 28.1 per cent. AA- and A-class vacancies were also up from the previous quarter at 17.6 and 18.9 per cent, respectively.

Fewer newcomers will mean weaker housing demand, lower prices, say experts

Fewer newcomers to our city will translate into weaker housing demand and lower housing prices for the foreseeable future, say housing experts.

According to the City of Calgary's 2016 census released last month, more than 6,500 people left the city between April 2016 and April 2015. The 4,256 population jump to 1.235 million was primarily attributed to an increase of births versus deaths.

"Not surprisingly, the overall impact of lower population growth in Calgary will weigh on its real estate market," said ATB Financial economist Nick Ford. "Housing prices may continue to slide lower in all areas of the city as a result of declining demand.

Signs of economic hardship started to reveal themselves by the end of 2014, recalled then-CREB® president Bill Kirk 

While the true severity of the economic slump currently dominating headlines had yet to been felt in 2014, Bill Kirk said the writing was already on the wall by the end of his tenure as CREB® president.

Oil production in the Middle East had just started to ramp up, prices for a barrel had started to fall and jobs in Calgary were suddenly in question, he recalled.

"By the end of 2014, there was talk of an oil glut," said Kirk. "We knew there would be fallout ... (but) no one knew what would happen.

"We were all surprised at how slowly through 2015 the bad news hit."

YYC's expansion could help city's real estate market soar

Foreign investment in the city's real estate market is poised to take flight.

And it's in no small part thanks to the ambitious expansion of the Calgary International Airport. From the recent opening of its new runway—the longest commercial airstrip in Canada—to its $1.4-billion new international terminal opening this fall, Calgary's bigger, better international airport dramatically increases the number of travellers from overseas.

While it's undoubtedly a shot in the arm to the city's struggling economy, it's not a leap in logic to assume more foreign business and pleasure travellers could provide a boost to its real estate sector, says Eric Horvath, vice president of investment sales at Colliers International.

Film centre represents just one example of efforts to transform local economy, say officials

Film production may be the world's glamour industry, but in Calgary it is shooting to become a new driver of Alberta's diversified economy.

Last week, the $28.2-million Calgary Film Centre opened in a Calgary southeast industrial park, about 20 minutes from downtown. The new facility includes three new sound stages spread across a total of 50,000 square feet and three multi-purpose workshop spaces offering an additional 15,000 square feet.

Calgary Economic Development president and CEO Mary Moran said the film and television industry is just one sector being focused on in attempt to diversify the local economy. CED predicts it could provide an annual $500-million injection into the economy in as little as five years, compared to its $175-million share today.

Over the past five decades, Calgary's real estate industry has been bare to it all – from double-digit interest rates to densification. Continuing until the end of 2016, CREB®Now will weave together an incredible narrative of how the local housing industry has evolved through the unique perspectives of CREB®'s 30 remaining past presidents.

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Diane Scott's recalls her year as CREB® president in 2010 as one of contention, highlighted by a very public battle between the federal competition watchdog and the country's national real estate association.

Dubbed the "Competition Bureau years," Scott said the debate around what the bureau deemed "anti-competitive real estate rules," which it said limited consumer choice and prevented innovation, shook up the industry then, and its results have reverberated even to today.

"It had everyone pretty riled up," she remembered. "It was a very, very tough year for REALTORS® to understand the models were to be accepted, regardless of what model it was."

Calgary Economic Development's top boss promotes collaboration, innovation

On the heels of flooding, low oil prices and, now, raging wildfires, Calgary Economic Development's top boss admits it might be easy for people in the province to see the glass half empty.

Yet Mary Moran, as well as other community leaders, urged those people to keep current conditions in perspective before claiming the end is near.

"These are historically challenging times for both Calgary and Alberta's economy," said CED's president and CEO, who likened the province's current situation to a game of Whac-a-Mole. "It seems we barely finished covering up the scars of the flood of 2013 when our number-one energy customer became our number-one very intense competitor.

Household income strong when compared to housing prices, other cities

Calgary homebuyers will continue to fare well as the city's affordability index will likely outpace other major urban centres in the country for the rest of this year, say experts.

RBC Economics senior economist Robert Hogue attributes Calgary's affordability moving forward to continued high household incomes in the city – especially when compared to cities such as Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal

"It's not because house prices are so cheap. It's because it's the market in Canada where the income is the highest," he said. "We measure affordability as a percentage of household income."

Segment rallies as overall market continues to face challenges

Once considered out for the count, Calgary's luxury housing sector has seemingly rallied, posting a double-digit sales increase so far in 2016, according to new statistics.

Home sales in the city valued at more than $1 million totalled 118 over the first three months of the year – up more than 20 per cent from 98 during the same period last year. In March, $1-million-plus sales totalled 54, up from 49 in 2015.

This comes as CREB® released its most recent monthly housing summary, showing overall sales in the city this year have declined so far this year by nearly 10 per cent.

"While the $1-million-plus segment accounts for a small share of the activity, there has certainly been some improvement in sales over last year," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.