Lower-class spaces feeling brunt of energy downturn

Vacancy rates in Calgary's downtown office market have hit historic highs in 2016, and commercial real estate experts are forecasting further declines moving forward.

According to a second-quarter market report by Colliers International in Calgary, the overall vacancy rate in the core has jumped to more than 22 per cent from 20.5 per cent the previous quarter – the equivalent of 618,716 square feet of office space.

Vacancy rates between classes varied, but were steepest in the B-class at 31.8 per cent and C-class at 28.1 per cent. AA- and A-class vacancies were also up from the previous quarter at 17.6 and 18.9 per cent, respectively.

Satellite communities showing similar signs of strain; officials still optimistic

Feeling the pinch of a slowing economy, smaller satellite community housing markets have mirrored a downward drift in prices compared with Calgary but continue to be an attractive draw for buyers.

Depending on the region, CREB®'s mid-year forecast update has shown only a slight reduction in sales compared to long-term trends and actual growth in other outlaying districts.

Still buzzing with plenty of activity in new-home construction, Airdrie sales activity slowed in 2016 but hasn't dropped compared to five-year averages. A continual inventory build-up has kept new listings on pace with the past three years for Airdrie, which experienced a 5.37 per cent population growth since last summer and has recently surpassed 60,000 residents.

Fewer newcomers will mean weaker housing demand, lower prices, say experts

Fewer newcomers to our city will translate into weaker housing demand and lower housing prices for the foreseeable future, say housing experts.

According to the City of Calgary's 2016 census released last month, more than 6,500 people left the city between April 2016 and April 2015. The 4,256 population jump to 1.235 million was primarily attributed to an increase of births versus deaths.

"Not surprisingly, the overall impact of lower population growth in Calgary will weigh on its real estate market," said ATB Financial economist Nick Ford. "Housing prices may continue to slide lower in all areas of the city as a result of declining demand.

Over-supply, fewer newcomers behind increasing vacancy rates

Vacancy rates in Calgary have spiked so far this year and are expected to rise for the foreseeable future, say industry insiders.

And with few signs of significant changes in the economy on the horizon, renters will enjoy plenty of choice and price flexibility, while landlords will need to get aggressive.

"Vacancy started rising pretty rapidly after the spring of last year and it's still been rising," said Gerry Baxter, executive director of the Calgary Residential Rental Association, which has about 850 members, representing between 65,000 and 70,000 rental units. There are more than 700 landlords in the association.

Breaking it down by the numbers

Earlier this year, CREB®Now published a feature on five things you needed to know about CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast. With the REALTOR® organization recently updating the document, we revisit those insights on what's to come:

17,321

After originally forecasting 18,416 sales in 2016, CREB® is now predicting Calgary's activity to fall to 17,321, a 3.8 per cent drop from last year. By sector, revised estimated peg detached to decline by five per cent, while attached and apartment will be down by eight and 19 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said the year began by favouring buyers, but is exhibiting more balanced conditions in areas such as the detached sector.

CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

When you know it's too good to be true

"Help! This plant is growing behind my office in Calgary and I can't identify it" tweeted Christene.

Gloria had some "wonderful old flowers" suddenly appear in her Canmore yard, so she sent photos by email. Mehran fell in love with a beautiful plant he saw in a Springbank ditch. He texted me a photo. Pretty and mysterious plants were suddenly on all my media.

"Our office building is about two blocks west of the Bow River. There's always a bunch of interesting plants growing out back behind the warehouse loading dock so I'm always trying to identify them, see if there are any plants I can steal to put in my garden. I had never seen anything like this one before and probably spent a good hour trying to figure out what it was," said Christene by follow-up email. But of course anything this exotic and pretty and springing out of nowhere could only be one thing. Christene and Gloria and Mehran all had or wanted to know more about weeds. Pretty, vigorous weeds.

The changing face of the first home purchase

A starter home has long been understood to mean a dwelling that represents someone's first foray into home ownership.

Mattamy Homes' vice-president of sales and marketing in Calgary, Warren Saunders, says, at its core, "It's a home that offers the best price and the best value for a new family starting out."

Donna Moore, the outgoing co-CEO of the Canadian Home Builders' Association (CHBA) – Urban Development Institute (UDI) Calgary Region Association, qualifies, however, that what constitutes a starter home today is very different from one of 30 years ago.

3D technology offers potential buyers round the clock viewing

Technology with its roots in video gaming is now making it increasingly easy to tour a home, or any other space, without leaving your couch.

Online home tours photographed with a 3D camera like the Matterport Pro are so close to being there, about the only thing you can't do is reach out and touch the walls. It's the maturing of technology that was first brought to the mass market in an Xbox game controller.

"Around 2010, 3D cameras were becoming available to detect gestures — the Microsoft Kinect being the best-known example," said Bill Brown, the CEO of Matterport, a Silicon Valley firm that specializes in immersive 3D media, including hardware, software and real-world uses for the technology.

Former CREB® president Marilyn Jones revelled in changing Calgary market

For much of her career, former CREB® president Marilyn Jones focused on helping clients from across Canada relocate to Calgary and find a house.

She liked the pressure – often times people had just a few days to look at houses in a new city, make a major decision and submit an offer – and was comfortable managing the many demands that needed to be juggled.

Those same skills came in handy when Jones became CREB® president in 2005.