Resale housing market expected to navigate ominous conditions in 2016

The year was 2014. The price of oil was soaring sky high, and, like so many other sectors, Calgary's housing market was along for the ride.

What a difference a few years make.

Following the collapse of worldwide oil prices and subsequent cooling of the city's once red hot housing market, the arrival of 2016 now finds Calgary in a time of uncertainty.

In its 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast, CREB® expects resale sales activity to decline by 2.2 per cent from 2015 levels to 18,416 units, and the benchmark price by 3.44 per cent to $438,652.

Speaking as part of Calgary Economic Development's (CED) 2016 Economic Outlook, Bank of Canada governor Stephen S. Poloz laid out his forecast for Canada's economy in the upcoming year.
With more than 1,500 on hand for the presentation, Poloz touched on some of the factors that have seen Canada's economy get off to a less-than-stellar start this year.
CREB®Now takes a look at some of the key points from CED's outlook.

GDP
Having seen two consecutive quarters of GDP decline, Canada's economy currently fits the definition of being in a recession. Looking forward, TD forecasts call for an annual growth rate of
1.2 per cent in 2015, followed by two per cent gains in 2016 and 2017.

Employment
Speaking on downsizings in Calgary's energy sector, CED president and chief executive Mary Moran said more layoffs should be expected, calling it the most challenging time for the city since the mid-1980s. ATB economist Todd Hirsch has predicted unemployment rate in the province could reach 7.5 per cent, which would be the highest rate seen since 2009.

Housing demand expected to weaken

Mike Dunn moved to Calgary from Edmonton in July. He'd been thinking for a while about relocating, but when a friend offered him an affordable place to stay, he decided to take the plunge.

"It was like walking into a hurricane, to land here during Stampede, but it was good," he said with a laugh. "It seems like a place where if you work hard, you can pull off a decent living."

Dunn's not the first to switch area codes – and he won't be the last.

But he does represent a smaller number, as net migration — the difference between the number of people who have moved to Calgary, compared to the number who have moved away from the city — is at its lowest since 2011.

Increased selection for attached, apartment homes in March

Proving that selection is sometimes the best sales pitch, attached and apartment listings increased year-over-year in March from a combined 1,272 to 1,360, according to CREB®.

The increase comes as combined sales decreased by 28 per cent during the month, from 975 last year to 700 units this year.

Coupled with the fact benchmark prices in the attached apartment sector have softened more than in other sectors – dropping by 1.46 per cent compared to a 0.4 per cent decline in the detached and attached sectors – the increased selection offers prospective buyers an attractive combination.

According to a new report from the Conference Board of Canada, any fears of a housing bubble in the country are "exaggerated".

The report, Housing Briefing: Bubble Fears Overblown takes a look at Canadian home prices which might be headed for a decline across the country, but eases any fears of a housing bubble.

The upcoming nights may be silent, but Calgary's days were full of another sound in November.

Driven by a surge in multi-family construction, local builders hammered out 1,693 new home starts in November, a 71 per cent increase over October.