What you should know about the year ahead for Calgary's housing market

CREB® has released its annual economic outlook and regional housing forecast. But what does it all mean? CREB®Now takes readers through the numbers.

18,335
After posting successive sales declines in 2014 (25,552), 2015 (18,839) and 2016 (17,809), CREB® is forecasting MLS® activity in Calgary to rebound slightly in 2017. Citywide sales are expected to total 18,335 units, a three per cent gain over 2016, but 12 per cent below long-term averages. By category, detached sales are predicted to hit 11,550 in 2016, while attached and apartment sales will reach 4,002 and 2,783, respectively.

Energy project approvals spark good news for real estate; just unclear as to when, say experts

In the closing days of 2016, Calgary's oil-driven housing market has received a welcome jolt of excitement from the federal government.

Ottawa approved not one, but two multi-billion-dollar oil pipeline projects, promising to move nearly one million barrels per day (bpd) of additional oil to United States and global markets upon completion. The two new pipeline projects would increase Canadian oil shipping capacity by 24.9 per cent.

Few surprises, but still highlights for Calgary's housing market this past year, say experts

In a year of sales declines, price adjustments and mortgage rule changes, the one constant for Calgary's housing market in 2016 was the number of challenges it faced as the result of soft economic conditions, say industry observers.

Yet officials also maintain challenges for some created opportunities for others. And, perhaps more importantly, there is renewed optimism heading into 2017 thanks to improving numbers during the second half of this year and a series of large energy infrastructure announcements.

CREB®Now looks back on 2016 with Calgary mayor

CREB®Now had the chance to sit down with Mayor Naheed Nenshi to get his birds-eye view on some of the city's most pressing issues over the past year, including who he believes is Calgary's hero for 2016. Here's what he had to say:

CREB®Now: There has been a lot of discussion regarding the cost of doing business in this city, both in the core and the suburban areas. What is the city doing to minimize their burden in the current economic climate?

Despite a challenging year, 1995 CREB® president Wayne McAlister chose to focus on the silver linings

A self-described "eternal optimist," Wayne McAlister still couldn't be blamed for looking back at 1995 with some degree of pessimism.

After all, as CREB®'s president that year, he oversaw Calgary's housing industry at a time when employment uncertainty had waned for years, resulting in weak consumer confidence and a painfully slow market.

"There was a downturn in the early '90s, with oil down – dramatically low – and the whole economy was feeling the pinch," he said. "(By 1995), we were still experiencing an economic downturn. There was some good, some bad that year."

Slow sales activity and inventory gains place downward pressure on prices

Calgary's housing market is starting 2016 firmly in buyers' market territory, much the same as last year ended, according to CREB®'s monthly housing summary for January.

"The recent slide in energy prices has raised concerns about near-term recovery prospects for the city," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "Energy market uncertainty and a soft labour market are weighing on many aspects of our economy, including the housing sector."

City wide, January sales totaled 763 units, 13 per cent below last year and 43 per cent below long-term averages. While new listings declined by 16 per cent compared to January 2015, the number of new listings far outpaced the sales, causing inventory gains. January's city wide months of supply levels rose above six months.

Global glut for oil means Alberta economy is expected to struggle in 2016 – and Calgary's housing market along with it

Alberta's energy sector has only felt the tip of the blade, say experts, who anticipate the worse is still to come.

"Unfortunately, the story is not positive – and it's not over for Calgary by any stretch of the imagination," said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

"I think that 2015 was just the pre-show, and we're going to see most of the damage, at least, in the first of half of 2016."

Comparing Calgary's current downturn to history

Calgary's infamous boom-bust economy is at it once again.

Just as it did in the 1980s and late-2000s, economic conditions have once again turned sour.

But does this downturn feel different from those that came before?

Yes, says CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

In CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast, Lurie notes that while some have tried to compare this year to the early 1980s – in terms of its perfect storm of low oil prices and high unemployment – the underlying conditions are, in fact, much different.

Yearly update on the local and national housing markets

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) has issued its outlook on the local and national housing markets. Detailing several factors impacting Canada's housing market -- both new and resale - CMHC's numbers provide a basis for what to expect heading into the remainder of 2015 into 2016 and beyond.

To help provide a little more understanding, CREB®Now digs a little deeper into CMHC's Outlook.