CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

Weak net migration expected to impact Calgary's housing market

Population growth in Calgary will moderate moving forward and contribute to a decline in housing demand, according to a market brief issued earlier this month by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

In the release, the national housing agency noted net migration is expected to remain relatively weak over the next two years, which will have a trickle-down effect on the local real estate market.

CREB®Now breaks down five things you need to know about how population will impact housing demand in Calgary this year and next.

New report paints mid-term picture

RBC Economics economist Craig Wright and Robert Hogue say the provincial recession continues to weigh on housing demand in Calgary, and such weakness is increasingly undermining prices.

In the bank's Canadian Housing Health Check released this week, the report's authors note the drop in property values has been generally modest to date; however, the pace of decline has accelerated and further downside remains.

Here are five things to know about contributors to Calgary's housing health so far this year:

Calgary Economic Development's top boss promotes collaboration, innovation

On the heels of flooding, low oil prices and, now, raging wildfires, Calgary Economic Development's top boss admits it might be easy for people in the province to see the glass half empty.

Yet Mary Moran, as well as other community leaders, urged those people to keep current conditions in perspective before claiming the end is near.

"These are historically challenging times for both Calgary and Alberta's economy," said CED's president and CEO, who likened the province's current situation to a game of Whac-a-Mole. "It seems we barely finished covering up the scars of the flood of 2013 when our number-one energy customer became our number-one very intense competitor.

Analysts say indicators point to prolonged downturn

The health of Calgary's residential housing market is only as good as the foundation it's built upon, say analysts, who reference several key indicators that point to a prolonged downturn in the city.

Richard Cho, principal market analysis in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), noted everything from employment levels to household income and migration to spending levels signal to tough times ahead for the local housing market.

Calgary, Edmonton tied for second

Calgary continued to be one of Canada's fastest-growing cities in 2015.

Growing in size even in the face of a struggling energy sector, Calgary tied with Edmonton as the second- fastest-growing cities in all of Canada.

According to Statistics Canada, Calgary and Edmonton posted identical population gains of 2.4 per cent between July 1, 2014 and June 30, 2015, placing the two centres behind only Kelowna, B.C. as the fastest-growing cities in Canada.

The average growth nationwide was 1.2 per cent, with five centres (Thunder Bay Ont., Peterborough Ont., Saguenay Que., Sudbury Ont., Saint John NB) posting populations declines over the surveyed period.

Housing demand expected to weaken

Mike Dunn moved to Calgary from Edmonton in July. He'd been thinking for a while about relocating, but when a friend offered him an affordable place to stay, he decided to take the plunge.

"It was like walking into a hurricane, to land here during Stampede, but it was good," he said with a laugh. "It seems like a place where if you work hard, you can pull off a decent living."

Dunn's not the first to switch area codes – and he won't be the last.

But he does represent a smaller number, as net migration — the difference between the number of people who have moved to Calgary, compared to the number who have moved away from the city — is at its lowest since 2011.

Calgary's secondary suite saga continues, focus turns to ageing in place

It just might be the suite that broke the camel's back.

City council debated rezoning one secondary suite for more than three hours on Oct. 6, leaving many since then to further question the process surrounding the issue.

Several residents from the northwest community of North Haven appeared before council to speak against an application to rezone property to include a secondary suite. Included in those speaking against was Sonya Staveley who lives between Nesbitt and Nolan roads, an area zoned RC-1, not allowing secondary suites. She said it's the process of filing for secondary suites that needs to change.

The City released the 2014 Civic Census results yesterday. Mayor Naheed Nenshi announced Calgary had its biggest year of growth ever increasing by 38,508 residents to 1,195,194 total.

Here's a few of the things the mayor had to say about the census:

"Calgary experienced this year, its greatest single year of growth in population, as a matter of fact in my time in this job we have experienced three of our four largest years of population growth."

Senior population in Calgary set to triple in 30 years

Calgary's reputation as a rapidly changing city isn't confined to its architecture.

By the early 2030s, the City projects – for the first time ever – Calgary will be home to more seniors than youth.

"Between 2012 and 2042, the population over 65 is expected to triple from roughly 100,000 people in 2012 to over 300,000 in 2042," said Katie Black, acting director for Community and Neighbourhood Services with the City.