Housing officials say foreign investment shift too early to tell; still unwavering on city's potential

Calgary could be the new Vancouver. At least that's what has some real estate observers maintaining more than two months after the B.C. government imposed a 15 per cent land transfer tax on real estate purchases by foreign buyers in the province's most populated city.

Aimed at dampening foreign investment—mostly from mainland China, which has been suspected of pushing up demand and prices in markets such as Vancouver where the benchmark price for a home is close to $1 million – the tax appears to be working.

Luxury buyers want it all including the (second) kitchen sink

Today's homebuyers want more for less – a pattern that is also starting to manifest in the luxury market, say local industry experts.

"There's no question that, like everybody, we've felt the pinch," said Danny Raposo, general manager of Astoria Custom Homes, which is building in Watermark at Bearspaw, just outside the city limits.

Still, Raposo describes 2016 as "a decent year," noting an increased interest in Astoria's Watermark product during the eight weeks prior to mid-September.

Over-supply, fewer newcomers behind increasing vacancy rates

Vacancy rates in Calgary have spiked so far this year and are expected to rise for the foreseeable future, say industry insiders.

And with few signs of significant changes in the economy on the horizon, renters will enjoy plenty of choice and price flexibility, while landlords will need to get aggressive.

"Vacancy started rising pretty rapidly after the spring of last year and it's still been rising," said Gerry Baxter, executive director of the Calgary Residential Rental Association, which has about 850 members, representing between 65,000 and 70,000 rental units. There are more than 700 landlords in the association.

Weak net migration expected to impact Calgary's housing market

Population growth in Calgary will moderate moving forward and contribute to a decline in housing demand, according to a market brief issued earlier this month by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

In the release, the national housing agency noted net migration is expected to remain relatively weak over the next two years, which will have a trickle-down effect on the local real estate market.

CREB®Now breaks down five things you need to know about how population will impact housing demand in Calgary this year and next.

New home industry to impact inventory, prices

Homebuyers could be in for more good news over the next several months as industry experts predict oversupply from the new home industry will create more selection and overall price softness.

"With the number of units still under construction, we do expect inventories to continue moving higher in the next couple of months," said Richard Cho, market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). "I think the impact that would have on the overall housing market and the resale market is more choice for buyers."

Cho added the number of units still under construction remains elevated, which will lead to the rise in inventory levels.

Warm weather brings indications of spring market to city

Following the second warmest February on record, the warm, sunny snow-free conditions emblematic of a spring housing market are already on display in our city. And while Calgary's housing market hasn't yet fully emerged from the doldrums, there are at least some signs of life.

With double-digit declines being the norm in 2015 for year-over-year sales, including several months of declines in excess of 25 per cent, the first two months of 2016 have seen the decline lessen.

Since October 2015, when year-over-year sales in the city fell by 33.2 per cent according to CREB®, Calgary's housing market has seen those declines lessen to 28.7 per cent in November, 18.1 per cent in December, 12.6 percent in January 2016 with February seeing the first single-digit decline in the city since December of 2014.

Analysts say indicators point to prolonged downturn

The health of Calgary's residential housing market is only as good as the foundation it's built upon, say analysts, who reference several key indicators that point to a prolonged downturn in the city.

Richard Cho, principal market analysis in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), noted everything from employment levels to household income and migration to spending levels signal to tough times ahead for the local housing market.

Calgary vacancy rate could go even higher in 2016, say experts

Renters in Calgary stand to gain the most from the energy sector's misfortune, with vacancy rates expected to increase after already jumping almost five-fold over the past year.

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) Fall Market Report released in early December, Calgary's vacancy rate rose from 1.4 per cent in fall 2014 to 5.3 per cent in October 2015.

The national average was 3.3 per cent.

"We expect the vacancy rate to edge even higher in 2016," said CMHC principal of market analysis Richard Cho. "And with higher vacancy rates, tenants will have more choice in the market and landlords will have to do more to attract renters, naturally putting more downward pressure on rents.

White-knuckle ride likely isn't over yet

Only a short while ago it was hard to find a place to rent in Calgary. How things have changed.

Calgary's rental market has been a rollercoaster ride since oil prices began to fall in late 2014. The vacancy rate for purpose-built rentals was 5.3 per cent this past October, based on numbers released by Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) in mid-December. That's almost a 400 per cent increase from October the previous year, when the vacancy rate was 1.4 per cent.

"Obviously, a big part of that is due to a change in the economy," said Richard Cho, principal market analyst for Calgary with CMHC.

Pace of construction still below 2014 levels: CMHC

A slight jump in single-detached and multi-family construction in Calgary last month fueled a month-over-month increase in housing starts, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC).

Housing starts in the city were trending at 13,780 units in October compared to 13,050 in September. The trend is a six month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of total housing starts.

"Housing starts trended higher in October as both single-detached and multi-family construction rose from the previous month," said Richard Cho, CMHC's principal of market analysis for Calgary. "Despite the increase from a month earlier, the pace of construction through most of this year has been below 2014 levels due to a rise in supply and a slowdown in migration and employment growth."