Few surprises, but still highlights for Calgary's housing market this past year, say experts

In a year of sales declines, price adjustments and mortgage rule changes, the one constant for Calgary's housing market in 2016 was the number of challenges it faced as the result of soft economic conditions, say industry observers.

Yet officials also maintain challenges for some created opportunities for others. And, perhaps more importantly, there is renewed optimism heading into 2017 thanks to improving numbers during the second half of this year and a series of large energy infrastructure announcements.

National activity down from 2015, but consistent with 2014, says CMHC

Foreign ownership of condominium-style apartments in Calgary this year is unchanged from a year prior and continues to represent a small proportion of the total market, according to a new report.

In a recent briefing, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) noted foreign buyer activity in the city's apartment sector represented 0.9 per cent of all activity in 2016. That's down from 1.1 per cent in 2015, but up from 0.2 per cent in 2014.

Detached prices dip below $500,000 for first time since 2014

Coming off a month of stronger sales activity, November's resale residential housing market returned to previous trends, according to CREB®.

In its November housing summary released Dec. 1, year-over-year monthly sales totaled 1,227 units, which is nearly three per cent lower than last year and 17 per cent below long-term averages.

"November was the first full month with CMHC's new lending rules in effect," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "As suspected, the gains in last month's sales were temporary. Stringent conditions for borrowers are converging with the current economic climate and weighing on demand."

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie has seen a bit of everything in 2016. From buyers' conditions to migrational changes, Calgary's housing market has taken industry observers like herself on a wild ride over the past 12 months.

CREB®Now recently had the chance to sit down with Lurie and reflect on 2016. Here's what she had to say:

CREB®Now: Did 2016 play out the way you expected?

CREB® points to mortgage rule changes as motivator

For the first time in two years, resale residential housing sales activity in October resembled normal levels, according to a new report.

City-wide sales totaled 1,644 units, which is an increase of nearly 16 per cent over last year, reported CREB® in its monthly housing summary.

"The shift in sales activity this month is likely related to the new mortgage rule changes, inventory gains in the lower price ranges and further price adjustments," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

CMHC assessment unchanged from April

Calgary's housing market continues to exhibit signs of over-valuation as economic and demographic fundamentals have altered demand, says a new report.

In its housing market assessment released this week, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) noted moderate signs of over-valuation tag due to labour market conditions that have been weak and the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate averaged 8.3 per cent, up considerably from the preceding 10-year monthly average of five per cent.

It's the second time this year that CMHC has noted problematic conditions in Calgary's housing market, the last time being in April.

New listing levels starting to match sales

A new report indicates the segment of Calgary's resale residential housing market with the greatest influence on the overall market is showing signs of pricing stability.

The detached benchmark price totaled $503,400 in September, which is 3.3 per cent below last year, but the second consecutive month at this price level, reported CREB® today.

While overall economic conditions remain soft, for now the detached sector is demonstrating some steadiness in terms of pricing, the member-based organization said.

Detached versus higher-density segments paint different pictures of health

Overall resale residential housing sales activity in Calgary was down again in August, totalling 1,567, reported CREB® in its monthly housing summary.

However, the organization noted this figure does not reflect the big differences in activity between the detached sector, versus the high density apartment and attached segments of the market.

Districts, housing types tell different stories about Calgary's housing market in August

Fewer new listings within Calgary's resale residential housing market continued to moderate price declines last month, according to new statistics.

Yet experts note what's arguably more interesting is how the interplay between new listing levels and prices within the city's districts, and even housing types, are providing consumers with some much-needed intel on their next purchasing decision.

Breaking it down by the numbers

Earlier this year, CREB®Now published a feature on five things you needed to know about CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast. With the REALTOR® organization recently updating the document, we revisit those insights on what's to come:

17,321

After originally forecasting 18,416 sales in 2016, CREB® is now predicting Calgary's activity to fall to 17,321, a 3.8 per cent drop from last year. By sector, revised estimated peg detached to decline by five per cent, while attached and apartment will be down by eight and 19 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said the year began by favouring buyers, but is exhibiting more balanced conditions in areas such as the detached sector.