Warm weather brings indications of spring market to city

Following the second warmest February on record, the warm, sunny snow-free conditions emblematic of a spring housing market are already on display in our city. And while Calgary's housing market hasn't yet fully emerged from the doldrums, there are at least some signs of life.

With double-digit declines being the norm in 2015 for year-over-year sales, including several months of declines in excess of 25 per cent, the first two months of 2016 have seen the decline lessen.

Since October 2015, when year-over-year sales in the city fell by 33.2 per cent according to CREB®, Calgary's housing market has seen those declines lessen to 28.7 per cent in November, 18.1 per cent in December, 12.6 percent in January 2016 with February seeing the first single-digit decline in the city since December of 2014.

CREB®Now sits down with incoming president Cliff Stevenson 

Softness in the provincial economy is expected to challenge Calgary's resale residential housing market in 2016. How will the market react?

CREB®Now recently had a chance to sit down with CREB®'s incoming president Cliff Stevenson to ask him five questions about the local housing industry in the year ahead.

CREB®Now: ?How will buyers and sellers react in what's expected to be a down economy?

Stevenson: Sellers are going to be more choosy with their timing in this calendar year. Someone who is working with a real estate professional is going to spend a lot more time on strategy with respect to pricing and timing. And buyers, especially first-time buyers and investors, will do their best to time the bottom, but I think that will be really difficult. So, I think this year it will be the guessing game by first-time buyers and investors of when will be the best time to get into the market. But I would suspect there are going to be some challenges with that.

Calgary vacancy rate could go even higher in 2016, say experts

Renters in Calgary stand to gain the most from the energy sector's misfortune, with vacancy rates expected to increase after already jumping almost five-fold over the past year.

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) Fall Market Report released in early December, Calgary's vacancy rate rose from 1.4 per cent in fall 2014 to 5.3 per cent in October 2015.

The national average was 3.3 per cent.

"We expect the vacancy rate to edge even higher in 2016," said CMHC principal of market analysis Richard Cho. "And with higher vacancy rates, tenants will have more choice in the market and landlords will have to do more to attract renters, naturally putting more downward pressure on rents.

The dish on real property reports

Lost in the lexicon of real estate transactions, a real property report can paint a picture that, in many cases, is worth much more than a thousand words.

An RPR, which is an essential part of real estate transactions, provides a visual and written assessment on the current state of affairs on a given property.

Performed by licensed land surveyors – and ranging in cost from $800 to $1,000 each – this report will disclose essential information such as the property line of a plot of land, recent improvements made to a property and details on any permanent structures (such as sheds, decks, houses, and garages) built on a property.

Prices expected to remain stable

Continued weakness in housing demand will limit downward pressure on supply levels and cause prices to ease in the second half of the year, CREB® said in its 2015 mid-year forecast. Despite this anticipated retraction, Calgary's benchmark prices are only expected to decline by less than one per cent on an annual basis.

"Further job losses are expected in the second half of the year," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "These employment changes combined with overall weakness and slower than anticipated recovery of oil prices is expected to keep housing demand relatively weak for the rest of 2015. However, with the initial shock of oil price declines having dissipated, the pullback in sales activity in the second quarter is not expected to be as dramatic as the first part of the year," said Lurie.

Overall sales activity in the city of Calgary is forecasted to total 19,780 in 2015, a 22 per cent decline relative to last year, but only six per cent lower than average activity over the past five years.

Dealing with real estate's S word

Calgary's real estate industry has come under the microscope recently, with some questioning the degree to which professionals are obliged to reveal perceived flaws in properties up for sale.

While CREB® President Bill Kirk acknowledges there is a "grey area" that exists with stigmatized properties — a point brought to light last week when a Brentwood home that was the scene of Calgary's worst mass killing went up for sale – he emphasized reactions to such homes are as varied as the circumstances surrounding them.

Mid-year forecast calling for more supply, added choices

Mario DeMarco thought he was prepared for anything after deciding to become a first-time homeowner.

The 25-year-old Calgarian has spent the past two years saving for a down payment, and was recently promoted at work, giving him the financial stability to purchase his own place – ideally a condo in the Beltline.