Adversity in condo market to continue in 2018

If you're a condo owner in Calgary, you may be telling yourself that "what goes down must come up," but it's a fine line between thoughtful analysis and wishful thinking.

"The condo-apartment sector is still facing a lot of challenges," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"While sales improved in 2017, it wasn't enough to keep pace with new listings, so we still had price declines."

Calgary housing market to see more of the same in 2018, as sales activity holds steady and listings ease

In 2018, the Calgary housing market will face a new reality of slower growth amidst higher interest rates and more restrictive mortgage lending rules.

While that new reality should be moderated by a modest uptick in the still-recovering local economy – assuming continuation of the job growth and net migration recorded last year – CREB® anticipates flat sales and prices for resale product compared to 2017.

2017 brought positive news for the new-home market, but there's still room to improve

Will 2018 bring good news or bad news for Calgary's new-home market? As with many aspects of the real estate market, it depends on your focus.

"Looking at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. data, we saw an improvement in starts in both the single- and multi-family sectors in 2017," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

December sales activity rises again, but so does supply

Sales activity for all product types improved in December and pushed monthly sales to long-term averages for the second month in a row.

However, new listings also rose, keeping inventory elevated compared to typical levels for December. With more supply remaining compared to sales, benchmark prices edged down for the fifth consecutive month.

November marks a rise in sales

The November housing market was spurred by a rise in sales, particularly in the lower price ranges.
Sales totaled 1,411 units in November, an increase of 15 per cent over last year. This is comparable to longer-term averages for the month of November. Improved sales activity occurred in each of the housing segments, with most of the gains occurring in homes priced under $500,000.

A closer look at the numbers behind Calgary's apartment-style housing market

Statistics Canada recently released an interesting piece of information regarding Calgary's residential real estate market that went relatively unnoticed.

According to the government agency, the share of households in the Calgary census metropolitan area living in condominiums was 21.8 per cent in 2016. That represented the second highest percentage in the country, behind only Vancouver at 30.6 per cent, and was much higher than the national average of 13.3 per cent.

Prices remain similar to last year, but ease in October

October's housing market conditions closely echoed previous months' trends, with easing sales, rising inventories and downward price pressure. Like last month, the monthly activity was not enough to derail gains that occurred earlier in the year.

Inventory increases and sales drop in September, but overall sales for the year remain higher than last year

Strong gains in the first half of 2017 have put Calgary year-to-date sales at seven per cent above last years' levels and 11 per cent below long-term averages, but challenges remain with easing sales and rising new listings.

Inventories rose across all property types to 6,861 units, while both apartment- and attached-style properties saw the highest inventory on record for the month of September.

Thinking long-term puts Calgary's housing market in perspective

Real estate is a numbers game, and looking at those numbers over an extended period truly does shine a light on the performance of a market over the long-term.

From that perspective, home prices in Calgary have been very impressive.

CREB® forecasts a process of recovery for the remainder of 2017

The first-half of 2017 marked a shift in Alberta's economy from recession to recovery, with conditions supporting stability rather than expansion.

"Economic challenges continue to exist, as high unemployment rates, weak migration levels and more stringent lending conditions are weighing on the housing market," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"This will continue to cause some adjustments in the housing market for the remainder of this year. However, this is not expected to offset earlier gains supporting general stability in 2017."