CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

Indicators suggests Calgary's housing market might be evening out

New housing market statistics are reinforcing the emergence of so-called balanced conditions in Calgary.

In its monthly stats package for June, CREB® noted key segments of the local market are seeing increased price stabilization brought upon by more moderate sales declines and listing increases.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie singled out last month's detached sector, which saw new listings decline at a faster rate than sales (five and 3.7 per cent, respectively) for only the second time in the past 12 months – the last time coming in January. As a result, the sector's benchmark price totaled $502,400, which was 0.4 per cent higher than May, yet still 3.4 per cent lower than last year's levels.

Resiliency in the detached and semi-detached markets temper price fluctuations

Calgary home prices continue to slide in most areas of the market, but not at the rate that many might expect, reported CREB® in its June housing summary. (Click here for the full report.)

CREB® partly attributed June's stats to resiliency in the detached and semi-detached sectors of the market, where sales compared to new listings and standing inventory started returning to more balanced levels.

"The detached market has been gradually moving towards more balanced conditions, helping to prevent price levels from declining at the faster rates we saw in the previous two quarters," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "While this is welcomed news for sellers, it's very likely that pricing challenges will persist in the housing market until economic conditions start to improve."

Supply gains contribute to inventory rise in soft housing market: CREB®

Calgary's residential resale housing market continued to exhibit signs of softness last month, according to CREB®.

The real estate board noted in its most recent housing summary that inventory levels continued to rise in May due to an increase in new listings and decrease in sales.

As a result, the benchmark price in the city decreased for the eighth consecutive month to $439,700. May's price represents a 0.3 per cent decline from last month, and four per cent from last year.

For the full report, click here.

Condo developers using downturn as opportunity to build

The downturn in Calgary's economy is creating a much-needed opportunity for developers to reset and plan for the long-term, say experts, who also believe the apartment-style condominium sector stands to benefit the most.

Susan Veres, senior vice-president of strategy and business development for Calgary Municipal Land Corp. (CMLC), admits sales "have slowed" in the popular East Village community on the banks of the Bow River, but also said the timing of the current downturn is "almost fortuitous" for the up-and-coming area.

"It's serendipitous that we're actually focusing on construction this year," she said, whose company, CMLC, is wholly owned subsidiary of the City of Calgary that is currently revitalizing East Village.

CMHC forecasts slowdown in new home construction

Calgary housing starts are forecast to decline for the second consecutive year in 2016, according to a new report.

In its semi-annual housing market outlook released today, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) noted reduced investments and layoffs in the energy industry due to low oil prices have spread and have impacted labour market conditions across many different industries. Elevated unemployment rates will slow down migration and income growth, while employment is expected to decline. As a result, housing demand will continue to deteriorate this year.

This, combined with a rise in inventory, will reduce the pace of new home construction. Total housing starts in 2016 will range between 8,400 and 9,400 units, down from 13,033 units in 2015.

April housing sales tell different stories for districts 

While the sun might be shining in Calgary this spring, this city's resale residential housing market was overshadowed by another month of declining sales and prices in April, according to CREB®.

However, despite inclement conditions, some areas of the city and segments of the market emerged as bright spots, with several posting double-digit sales increases, the board reported in its recent monthly housing summary.
Calgary's West district recorded 128 detached sales in April, a nearly 31 per cent increase when compared to last year. It was followed by the North West, which posted a 20 per cent increase in detached sales with 187 units, the North at more than 11 per cent to 166 detached sales and City Centre at nearly four per cent to 111 detached units.

"Our market is incredibly diverse, and these numbers verify that. Different areas and price points have and will continue to react divergently to economic conditions," said CREB® president Cliff Stevenson.

By the numbers

Calgary's housing market has remained relatively unchanged this spring. With reoccurring year-over-year sales declines and benchmark price reductions receiving most of the attention, CREB®Now takes a closer look at some of the overlooked numbers to come out of the city's real estate market.

46
According to CREB®'s latest housing numbers, the average time a listing spent on the market before finding a new owner stood at 46 days in April. That's up from 43 days in March and 40 days in April 2015. With 3,127 homes in Calgary's inventory, the city currently has 2.76 months of supply, with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 62 per cent.

Sellers continue to adjust pricing expectations

Market imbalance in Calgary's residential resale housing market continued to weigh on citywide prices in April, according to CREB®.

In its monthly housing summary released today, the board reported that, much like the previous month, year-over-year sales fell while new listings increased, resulting in inventory gains across all sectors of the market.

As a result, benchmark prices in the city declined by 0.4 per cent from last month, and 3.4 per cent from last year, to $441,000.

For the full release, click here.

New home industry to impact inventory, prices

Homebuyers could be in for more good news over the next several months as industry experts predict oversupply from the new home industry will create more selection and overall price softness.

"With the number of units still under construction, we do expect inventories to continue moving higher in the next couple of months," said Richard Cho, market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). "I think the impact that would have on the overall housing market and the resale market is more choice for buyers."

Cho added the number of units still under construction remains elevated, which will lead to the rise in inventory levels.