CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

Former CREB® president Kevin Clark recalls robust activity in 2006 created new set of challenges

To an outsider today, 2006 was an enviable year for real estate in Calgary. Nine to 10 offers on a house was commonplace, sales activity hit an all-time high with 26,975 transactions and prices skyrocketed year over year by more than 40 per cent to $336,408.

But for Kevin Clark, who was CREB® president that year, he doesn't long for those days.

Clark describes the market in 2006 as volatile. He recalls Calgary's housing industry that year as one overrun with inventory fluctuations that came with their own set of challenges.

Former CREB® president Becky Walters remembers how communities rallied in following natural disaster in 2013

Becky Walters remembers 2013 like most Calgarians do – one equally fraught with harrowing tales of devastation and inspiring stories of community spirit following a historic flood that left many communities underwater.

In June 2013, Alberta experienced heavy rainfall that sparked 32 states of local emergency in communities throughout southern Alberta and resulted in billions of dollars in insurable damages.

"It was something that affected the whole city, of course," said Walters, who, six months earlier, had become president of CREB®.

Indicators suggests Calgary's housing market might be evening out

New housing market statistics are reinforcing the emergence of so-called balanced conditions in Calgary.

In its monthly stats package for June, CREB® noted key segments of the local market are seeing increased price stabilization brought upon by more moderate sales declines and listing increases.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie singled out last month's detached sector, which saw new listings decline at a faster rate than sales (five and 3.7 per cent, respectively) for only the second time in the past 12 months – the last time coming in January. As a result, the sector's benchmark price totaled $502,400, which was 0.4 per cent higher than May, yet still 3.4 per cent lower than last year's levels.

Resiliency in the detached and semi-detached markets temper price fluctuations

Calgary home prices continue to slide in most areas of the market, but not at the rate that many might expect, reported CREB® in its June housing summary. (Click here for the full report.)

CREB® partly attributed June's stats to resiliency in the detached and semi-detached sectors of the market, where sales compared to new listings and standing inventory started returning to more balanced levels.

"The detached market has been gradually moving towards more balanced conditions, helping to prevent price levels from declining at the faster rates we saw in the previous two quarters," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "While this is welcomed news for sellers, it's very likely that pricing challenges will persist in the housing market until economic conditions start to improve."

Former CREB® president Ron Stanners recalls local housing industry slows down slightly in 2007 after break-neck speed years prior

Over the past five decades, Calgary's real estate industry has been bare to it all – from double-digit interest rates to densification. As part of an ongoing series, CREB®Now continues to weave together an incredible narrative of how the local housing industry has evolved through the unique perspectives of CREB®'s 30 remaining past presidents.

Following two "absolutely crazy" years in Calgary's real estate market, Ron Stanners almost looked forward to the slightly slower pace when he became CREB® president in 2007.

"It was a good year, but it was not the boom of the years before," he said.

"The first half of the year had good, solid sales. Then, sales did slowdown in the latter half. That's normal, but they slowed more than normal."

Reality starting to sink in, says board president

Calgarians looking to sell their homes are slowly coming to the realization that it's a buyers' market and are beginning to manage their price expectations, says CREB® president Cliff Stevenson.

"I think there's still something to the fact that sellers are still adjusting to this – to the fact the pendulum has definitely swung in the buyers' favour. I think you've got some sellers that are obviously taking a bit longer to figure this out than others," said Stevenson, noting CREB® officially labelled it a buyers' market in November 2015 after three consecutive months of inventory increases.

CREB® chief economist walks through often-overlooked housing statistics

Months of supply is a statistic that often gets lost in today's housing market, yet it is an important indicator of the relationship between supply and demand, says CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"It gives us one indication of balance in the market," she said of months of supply, which is the amount of time it would take to sell current inventory.

"If the number is really high – so you have a higher level of months-of-supply – that essentially just means that there's more supply than demand in the market and it generally correlates with declining prices in the market.

Supply gains contribute to inventory rise in soft housing market: CREB®

Calgary's residential resale housing market continued to exhibit signs of softness last month, according to CREB®.

The real estate board noted in its most recent housing summary that inventory levels continued to rise in May due to an increase in new listings and decrease in sales.

As a result, the benchmark price in the city decreased for the eighth consecutive month to $439,700. May's price represents a 0.3 per cent decline from last month, and four per cent from last year.

For the full report, click here.

Sales dip in Airdrie and Okotoks while Cochrane activity on the rise

Calgary's regional resale residential housing market didn't fare much better than its larger urban counterpart in April, posting sales declines almost across the board, according to CREB®.

Year-to-date sales in Airdrie eased by nearly eight per cent over last year's levels to 405 transactions, but remained higher than long-term averages, the board recently reported in its monthly regional roundup.

Benchmark prices in Calgary's neighbour to the north decreased by three per cent from last year to $363,400, and overall remained more than two per cent below the highs recorded in 2015.