Price declines being moderated by lack of listing activity, say experts

The numbers don't lie, but they can be misleading.

Calgary's real estate market so far this year has continued a pattern of year-over-year declines that was first set early in 2015.

According to CREB®, sales decreased by more than 10 per cent up to the end of July from the same time last year.

Yet, perhaps surprising, is the benchmark price is down just 3.7 per cent.

Satellite communities showing similar signs of strain; officials still optimistic

Feeling the pinch of a slowing economy, smaller satellite community housing markets have mirrored a downward drift in prices compared with Calgary but continue to be an attractive draw for buyers.

Depending on the region, CREB®'s mid-year forecast update has shown only a slight reduction in sales compared to long-term trends and actual growth in other outlaying districts.

Still buzzing with plenty of activity in new-home construction, Airdrie sales activity slowed in 2016 but hasn't dropped compared to five-year averages. A continual inventory build-up has kept new listings on pace with the past three years for Airdrie, which experienced a 5.37 per cent population growth since last summer and has recently surpassed 60,000 residents.

Breaking it down by the numbers

Earlier this year, CREB®Now published a feature on five things you needed to know about CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast. With the REALTOR® organization recently updating the document, we revisit those insights on what's to come:

17,321

After originally forecasting 18,416 sales in 2016, CREB® is now predicting Calgary's activity to fall to 17,321, a 3.8 per cent drop from last year. By sector, revised estimated peg detached to decline by five per cent, while attached and apartment will be down by eight and 19 per cent, respectively. Meanwhile, CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie said the year began by favouring buyers, but is exhibiting more balanced conditions in areas such as the detached sector.

CREB®'s mid-year update cites tough start to 2016, forecasts continued challenges moving forward

Calgary's housing market will continue to battle recessionary conditions during the second half of 2016, but the worse might be behind it.

That's the word from CREB® as it released a mid-year update to its annual Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast.

"With no near-term changes expected in the economic climate, housing demand is expected to remain weak for the second consecutive year as resale activity is forecasted to decline by eight per cent in 2016," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, who authored the report.

Former CREB® president Becky Walters remembers how communities rallied in following natural disaster in 2013

Becky Walters remembers 2013 like most Calgarians do – one equally fraught with harrowing tales of devastation and inspiring stories of community spirit following a historic flood that left many communities underwater.

In June 2013, Alberta experienced heavy rainfall that sparked 32 states of local emergency in communities throughout southern Alberta and resulted in billions of dollars in insurable damages.

"It was something that affected the whole city, of course," said Walters, who, six months earlier, had become president of CREB®.

Indicators suggests Calgary's housing market might be evening out

New housing market statistics are reinforcing the emergence of so-called balanced conditions in Calgary.

In its monthly stats package for June, CREB® noted key segments of the local market are seeing increased price stabilization brought upon by more moderate sales declines and listing increases.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie singled out last month's detached sector, which saw new listings decline at a faster rate than sales (five and 3.7 per cent, respectively) for only the second time in the past 12 months – the last time coming in January. As a result, the sector's benchmark price totaled $502,400, which was 0.4 per cent higher than May, yet still 3.4 per cent lower than last year's levels.

Resiliency in the detached and semi-detached markets temper price fluctuations

Calgary home prices continue to slide in most areas of the market, but not at the rate that many might expect, reported CREB® in its June housing summary. (Click here for the full report.)

CREB® partly attributed June's stats to resiliency in the detached and semi-detached sectors of the market, where sales compared to new listings and standing inventory started returning to more balanced levels.

"The detached market has been gradually moving towards more balanced conditions, helping to prevent price levels from declining at the faster rates we saw in the previous two quarters," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "While this is welcomed news for sellers, it's very likely that pricing challenges will persist in the housing market until economic conditions start to improve."

Secondary suites and sustainability highlight Sano Stante's year as CREB® president

The year was 2011: Naheed Nenshi was in his first full year as mayor, secondary suites had become part of Calgarians' daily lexicon and the term "sustainability" had started to creep into community development.

Looking back at it now, then CREB® president Sano Stante noted his year at the helm not only gave him a front-row seat to the action, but an enviable opportunity to influence change.

He noted his work with CREB® in advocating council to legalize secondary suites across the city stands out the most from his year of presidency.

"It's something I was really proud of," said Stante.

CREB® chief economist walks through often-overlooked housing statistics

Months of supply is a statistic that often gets lost in today's housing market, yet it is an important indicator of the relationship between supply and demand, says CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"It gives us one indication of balance in the market," she said of months of supply, which is the amount of time it would take to sell current inventory.

"If the number is really high – so you have a higher level of months-of-supply – that essentially just means that there's more supply than demand in the market and it generally correlates with declining prices in the market.

Supply gains contribute to inventory rise in soft housing market: CREB®

Calgary's residential resale housing market continued to exhibit signs of softness last month, according to CREB®.

The real estate board noted in its most recent housing summary that inventory levels continued to rise in May due to an increase in new listings and decrease in sales.

As a result, the benchmark price in the city decreased for the eighth consecutive month to $439,700. May's price represents a 0.3 per cent decline from last month, and four per cent from last year.

For the full report, click here.