CMHC survey paints picture of Canadians' financial health

The financial health of Canadians has received widespread attention in the media with the debt-to-income ratio reaching record levels in recent years. Despite rising indebtedness, low interest rates in recent years have kept the cost of servicing debt manageable.

To help get a handle on where Canadians debt lies, CREB®Now digs into CMHC's debt survey.

$1.9 trillion
Over the past decade, Canadian households have become increasingly indebted, with total household credit edging higher again in the third quarter of 2015 to $1.9 trillion. Mortgage credit, at over 70 per cent of total debt, was the principal driver of this increase. Between 2001 and 2011, average inflation-adjusted MLS® residential housing prices appreciated by 72 per cent.

New home industry to impact inventory, prices

Homebuyers could be in for more good news over the next several months as industry experts predict oversupply from the new home industry will create more selection and overall price softness.

"With the number of units still under construction, we do expect inventories to continue moving higher in the next couple of months," said Richard Cho, market analyst in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC). "I think the impact that would have on the overall housing market and the resale market is more choice for buyers."

Cho added the number of units still under construction remains elevated, which will lead to the rise in inventory levels.

CMHC paints sobering picture of in-need housing

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) recently released a report on "core housing need" in Canada that paints a sobering picture for those in need in this country.

CREB®Now takes a closer look at the report, which focuses on households that spend in excess of 50 per cent of their income on shelter.

5.3%
From 2006-11, the incidence of Canadian households in severe housing need increased, reaching 5.3 per cent, or 655,380 households – consistent with 2001 levels. Shelter costs for all Canadian households during this period increased more rapidly than household income before tax, which could partially explain the increase in the number and percentage of households in severe housing need during this period, said CMHC.

Analysts say indicators point to prolonged downturn

The health of Calgary's residential housing market is only as good as the foundation it's built upon, say analysts, who reference several key indicators that point to a prolonged downturn in the city.

Richard Cho, principal market analysis in Calgary for Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC), noted everything from employment levels to household income and migration to spending levels signal to tough times ahead for the local housing market.

Shared-equity housing and other programs are creating solutions to the city's affordable housing crisis

Affordable housing advocates say more moderate population growth this year will not be enough to break down barriers to homeownership that many Calgarians continue to face.

Calgary Homeless Foundation vice-president of strategy Kevin McNichol said the housing market still cannot keep up with demand, with historically high prices prohibiting many people from owning a home of their own.

In late December, more than 3,600 people were on the Calgary Housing Company's wait list for subsidized and affordable housing units — the largest number of Calgarians waiting for a home since March 2012.

Industry welcomes influx of rental units coming on stream

An increase in the number of purpose-built rentals coming onto the market over the next few years is good for Calgary and the communities they reside in over the long run, say experts

According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC's) Fall 2015 Rental Market Report for Calgary, 1,216 apartment rental units were under construction as of September 2015, a 53 per cent increase from the year before.

This comes after purpose-built rental apartments increased for the second consecutive year in 2015. CMHC reports 865 purpose-built rental units came on the Calgary market in 2015, bringing the total number of such units in the city up to 35,227.

Calgary vacancy rate could go even higher in 2016, say experts

Renters in Calgary stand to gain the most from the energy sector's misfortune, with vacancy rates expected to increase after already jumping almost five-fold over the past year.

According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.'s (CMHC) Fall Market Report released in early December, Calgary's vacancy rate rose from 1.4 per cent in fall 2014 to 5.3 per cent in October 2015.

The national average was 3.3 per cent.

"We expect the vacancy rate to edge even higher in 2016," said CMHC principal of market analysis Richard Cho. "And with higher vacancy rates, tenants will have more choice in the market and landlords will have to do more to attract renters, naturally putting more downward pressure on rents.

A cloud of uncertainty hangs over top of Calgary's housing market in 2016. To help anxious buyers and sellers, here are a few key numbers from CREB®'s 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast that will shed some light on what's to come.

18,416
After posting 25,543 sales in 2014 and 18,830 in 2015, CREB® is predicting Calgary's resale housing market to decline slightly in 2016 to 18,416 – below the 10-year average. Sales are expected to be down 2.5 per cent in the detached sector, 1.5 per cent in attached and two per cent in apartments. According to CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie, the beginning of the year will find Calgary in a buyer's market.

Beleaguered sector takes brunt of economic downturn

Apartment-style condominiums were the hardest hit within Calgary's resale residential housing market in 2015, with price drops and inventory gains that outpaced both attached and detached products

On an annual basis, the apartment benchmark price slide by 0.4 per cent to $292,818 by the end of November, according to CREB®. In comparison, year-to-date benchmark prices in the detached and attached sectors during the same period actually increased by 1.7 and 2.1 per cent, respectively.

Yet more telling is how apartment prices reacted during the year, as it dropped by four per cent from $298,700 in January to $287,000 in November. During this period, benchmark prices in the detached and attached sectors declined by a more modest 1.5 and one per cent, respectively.

Global glut for oil means Alberta economy is expected to struggle in 2016 – and Calgary's housing market along with it

Alberta's energy sector has only felt the tip of the blade, say experts, who anticipate the worse is still to come.

"Unfortunately, the story is not positive – and it's not over for Calgary by any stretch of the imagination," said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

"I think that 2015 was just the pre-show, and we're going to see most of the damage, at least, in the first of half of 2016."