Resale housing market expected to navigate ominous conditions in 2016

The year was 2014. The price of oil was soaring sky high, and, like so many other sectors, Calgary's housing market was along for the ride.

What a difference a few years make.

Following the collapse of worldwide oil prices and subsequent cooling of the city's once red hot housing market, the arrival of 2016 now finds Calgary in a time of uncertainty.

In its 2016 Economic Outlook & Regional Housing Market Forecast, CREB® expects resale sales activity to decline by 2.2 per cent from 2015 levels to 18,416 units, and the benchmark price by 3.44 per cent to $438,652.

Elevated supply levels placed downward pressure on prices in December  

With the focus shifting toward the holiday season, December sales activity slowed to 878 units in the city, 18 per cent below last year at this time and well below the five- and 10-year averages, according to CREB®'s final monthly housing summary of 2015.

As a result, the unadjusted benchmark price dipped to $448,800, a 0.42 per cent decline over the previous month and 2.33 year over year.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie noted December followed a pattern established early on in 2015, which was characterized by slower housing demand.

Weak sales activity relative to inventory places downward pressure on prices

Persistently high inventory levels within Calgary's residential resale housing market, combined with weak sales activity, contributed to buyers' conditions in November, according to CREB®'s monthly housing summary, released Tuesday.

Monthly sales totaled 1,263 units, a 28 per cent decline from last year and nearly 20 per cent below the 10-year average.

Meanwhile, the amount of new listings in the market increased by five per cent over last November, and moved five per cent above 10-year average.

CREB® report singles out changing conditions in apartment sector

Buyer's conditions in the apartment sector are contributing to a continued shift in Calgary's resale residential housing market, which experienced a second consecutive month of price declines in October, according to CREB®.

The local housing agency noted that while overall, new listings in the city did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions, the biggest shift continued to occur in the apartment sector.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie noted months of supply in that sector have gone from a low of three months in June to nearly six months in October.

Sales activity remains well below long-term averages  

Elevated inventory levels in October contributed to a second consecutive month of price declines in Calgary's resale residential housing market.

Benchmark prices declined 0.7 per cent from the previous month, and 1.2 per cent from the same time last year, to $453,100.

"Persistent weakness in the overall economy continued to impact housing demand in Calgary as October sales were nearly 16 per cent below long-term averages," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "In addition, new listings did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions."

Will add 'consistency' to housing stock numbers

Seeking to provide consumers and industry experts with a better picture of Calgary's housing market, CREB has altered some of the categories in its monthly housing report.

Prior to the changes, which will appear on the January housing update, the city's housing stock was separated into three categories: single-family, condominium apartment and condominium townhouse.