Investors see opportunities within local housing market

Within the next six months, 26-year-old Calgarian Chad Kanovsky intends to take the plunge and buy as many as four multi-family units as income-producing investment properties.

The commercial real estate associate already has a stock portfolio, and is looking to diversify by adding local real estate.

Yet Kanovsky, who started working in land development as a teenager for his father's company, is adamant he will not be jumping into any "get-rich-quick" investment.

"I'm not looking to make a million dollars in the next year and then go to Mexico," he said.

Weak sales activity relative to inventory places downward pressure on prices

Persistently high inventory levels within Calgary's residential resale housing market, combined with weak sales activity, contributed to buyers' conditions in November, according to CREB®'s monthly housing summary, released Tuesday.

Monthly sales totaled 1,263 units, a 28 per cent decline from last year and nearly 20 per cent below the 10-year average.

Meanwhile, the amount of new listings in the market increased by five per cent over last November, and moved five per cent above 10-year average.

As city plans next phase, new study reveals light-rail transit has positive effect on property prices

Light-rail transit could boost the value of your home. At least that's the general finding of a new study from the University of Calgary.

According to new research obtained exclusively by CREB®Now and completed by Economics master's degree student Laura Dick, LRT line development has had a modestly positive effect on the price of housing located close to stations along new lines in Calgary.

"Properties within zero to 500 metres of a station saw, on average, an increase in sales price of about 1.5 per cent compared to properties that are 2,000 metres or more away from a station," said Dick, whose recently completed work is still to be published in an academic journal.

CREB® report singles out changing conditions in apartment sector

Buyer's conditions in the apartment sector are contributing to a continued shift in Calgary's resale residential housing market, which experienced a second consecutive month of price declines in October, according to CREB®.

The local housing agency noted that while overall, new listings in the city did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions, the biggest shift continued to occur in the apartment sector.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie noted months of supply in that sector have gone from a low of three months in June to nearly six months in October.

Calgary vacancy rates quadruple from last year: CMHC

Calgary's once-cramped rental market has space to spare, and it could have implications for the city's new and resale home sectors.

In its recent fall rental survey, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) reported vacancy rates in Calgary's rental sector has nearly quadrupled over the previous year, jumping to 5.3 per cent in October from 1.4 per cent at the same time last year.

"The call volume has dropped off considerably in the last 12 months," said Mainstreet Equity Corp. CEO Bob Dhillon, whose Calgary-based real estate company owns and operates rental properties in the Calgary area, as well as in British Columbia and Saskatchewan.

Sales activity remains well below long-term averages  

Elevated inventory levels in October contributed to a second consecutive month of price declines in Calgary's resale residential housing market.

Benchmark prices declined 0.7 per cent from the previous month, and 1.2 per cent from the same time last year, to $453,100.

"Persistent weakness in the overall economy continued to impact housing demand in Calgary as October sales were nearly 16 per cent below long-term averages," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie. "In addition, new listings did not decline enough to prevent inventory gains and, ultimately, price contractions."

Higher inventory levels consistent throughout surrounding area

Alberta's economic downturn caught up with the residential housing industry outside of Calgary in the third quarter as price declined for the first time in 2015, says a new report from CREB®.

Despite the slight scale back, prices remained relatively resilient when compared to double-digit declines in sales that sparked a rise in inventory levels.

In its latest surrounding area quarterly summary, CREB® reported benchmark prices from July to September fell by 0.41 per cent from the previous quarter to $433,033. That compares to gains realized in the two previous quarters.

Conditions shift in September, according to CREB®

Housing statistics from September confirm that unbalanced conditions in some areas of Calgary's resale residential market are starting to push the entire sector into buyers' territory, according to CREB®.

Driven by excess inventory in the apartment sector, the overall market's sales-to-new-listings ratio — a key indicator of a buyer's market — declined further in September to 47 per cent, according to the board. That means less than five out of every 10 new listings sold during the month.

In August, the ratio hovered around 60 per cent, which was firmly in balanced conditions, according to CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Will an increase in vacancy rates push down housing demand? 

Calgary has long had a reputation as a difficult place to rent – a reputation confirmed for much of last year when the city's vacancy rate hovered below one per cent.

Yet market uncertainty brought upon by oil patch woes have painted a much different picture in 2015, with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) reporting vacancy rates in the city as high as 3.2 per cent.

While good news for renters, it poses as potential bad news for home sellers, notes ATB Financial chief economist Todd Hirsch.

Outside factors will impact housing market through 2016

With the sun in Calgary rising and falling relative to the price of a barrel, it should be no surprise that the city's real estate market will continue to be impacted by economic realities beyond its control, say housing analysts.

Following a first half that can best be described as turbulent, the remainder of 2015 looks to bring more of the same for the city's housing market, with CREB®'s mid-year forecast update suggesting decreases across the board, including moderate price contraction.

"Further job losses are expected in the second half of the year," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

"These employment changes, combined with overall weakness and slower-than-anticipated recovery of oil prices, are expected to keep housing demand relatively weak for the rest of 2015.