The COVID-19 vaccine rollout, a rosier economy and the opening of post-secondary institutions to in-person classes could all improve Calgary's residential rental vacancy rate by as early as this fall.

That's the prediction of industry watchers for a rental market that currently sits at a vacancy high of 6.6 per cent, although steady average monthly rents continue to be made even more attractive for renters by incentive offerings.

In 2019, Calgary experienced a purpose-built-rental "boom" and 2020 is expected to be even hotter.

According to market research firm Urban Analytics, there are approximately 65 new purpose-built rental projects (totalling 19,225 apartment units) currently proceeding through the planning and construction processes.

Challenges continue for Calgary's rental market

"Very cautious optimism" is how Gerry Baxter, executive director of the Calgary Residential Rental Association, describes the industry's view of Calgary's current rental landscape.

While Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) pegged Calgary's rental vacancy rate at seven per cent last fall – the highest it's been in more than 25 years – Baxter says he thinks residential vacancies in the city are actually closer to the eight-to-10-per-cent range.

"There's been some slight improvement in the rental market over the last few weeks, but it's still a challenge to rent," said Baxter, attributing the slack rental market to the economic downturn that started in late 2014 and early 2015.

Economic conditions create ideal situation for renters, challenges for landlords

In the most volatile economy in the country, it is no big surprise Calgary landlords endured 2016 with the highest rental housing vacancy rate in a quarter of a century.

"It is a free market economy, with all the ups and downs, and in the middle of (this downturn), you just hope many will survive it," said Gerry Baxter, executive director of the Calgary Residential Rental Association (CRRA) of Calgary's current seven per cent vacancy rate.

Over-supply, fewer newcomers behind increasing vacancy rates

Vacancy rates in Calgary have spiked so far this year and are expected to rise for the foreseeable future, say industry insiders.

And with few signs of significant changes in the economy on the horizon, renters will enjoy plenty of choice and price flexibility, while landlords will need to get aggressive.

"Vacancy started rising pretty rapidly after the spring of last year and it's still been rising," said Gerry Baxter, executive director of the Calgary Residential Rental Association, which has about 850 members, representing between 65,000 and 70,000 rental units. There are more than 700 landlords in the association.