The vibrancy of Calgary's downtown office market is a good indicator of the health of the city's economy, and since the oil price collapse that started in the latter half of 2014, they've both been struggling.

2017 brought positive news for the new-home market, but there's still room to improve

Will 2018 bring good news or bad news for Calgary's new-home market? As with many aspects of the real estate market, it depends on your focus.

"Looking at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. data, we saw an improvement in starts in both the single- and multi-family sectors in 2017," said CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie.

Calgary's retail market is expected to remain vibrant over the next 12 months due to an improving economy and rising consumer confidence.

A report by Colliers International in Calgary says the shopping centre vacancy rate in the city is expected to drop slightly from 3.21 per cent to three per cent while streetfront vacancy rates are expected to stabilize and hover around the current rate of 5.75 per cent.

"We are still the number one province on a per capita retail (spending) basis by a significant amount above the national average," said Robert Walker, senior vice-president/partner with Colliers International in Calgary. "That still shows me that despite the vast number of layoffs downtown, the people who are employed are still spending money.

"Our average weekly income is still the highest in the country by a longshot. So they're still spending money."

Experts provide feedback on Calgary's real estate market so far

It has been an interesting year for the Calgary real estate market considering the city's economy is still struggling due to ongoing uncertainty in the energy sector.

According to CREB®, year-to-date, until the end of July, MLS® sales of 10,952 were down 10.1 per cent compared with the same period a year ago. New listings of 21,191 were off by 2.23 per cent, but active listings of 5,847 were up by 9.64 per cent.

The average MLS sales price of $479,597 increased by 1.2 per cent. However, the benchmark price was down 3.68 per cent to $443,386.

Some housing and business experts were asked what has been the most surprising thing this year about the Calgary real estate market. Here are their responses:

Fewer newcomers will mean weaker housing demand, lower prices, say experts

Fewer newcomers to our city will translate into weaker housing demand and lower housing prices for the foreseeable future, say housing experts.

According to the City of Calgary's 2016 census released last month, more than 6,500 people left the city between April 2016 and April 2015. The 4,256 population jump to 1.235 million was primarily attributed to an increase of births versus deaths.

"Not surprisingly, the overall impact of lower population growth in Calgary will weigh on its real estate market," said ATB Financial economist Nick Ford. "Housing prices may continue to slide lower in all areas of the city as a result of declining demand.

Indicators suggests Calgary's housing market might be evening out

New housing market statistics are reinforcing the emergence of so-called balanced conditions in Calgary.

In its monthly stats package for June, CREB® noted key segments of the local market are seeing increased price stabilization brought upon by more moderate sales declines and listing increases.

CREB® chief economist Ann-Marie Lurie singled out last month's detached sector, which saw new listings decline at a faster rate than sales (five and 3.7 per cent, respectively) for only the second time in the past 12 months – the last time coming in January. As a result, the sector's benchmark price totaled $502,400, which was 0.4 per cent higher than May, yet still 3.4 per cent lower than last year's levels.

Sellers' conditions in B.C., buyers' in Saskatchewan

A new report from the Conference Board of Canada says balanced conditions in Calgary's resale housing market are expected to create price gains in the coming months.

In its June Metro Resale Snapshot, the organization anticipates the city's MLS® price will increase between zero and 2.9 per cent over the short term. In May, the house price in Calgary was $465,840, up 1.1 per cent from April and 2.3 per cent from a year ago.

Study author Robin Wiebe classified Calgary's housing market as balanced, noting sales volumes in May increased by 1.6 per cent on a month-over-month basis, while listings declined by 1.9 per cent.

Global glut for oil means Alberta economy is expected to struggle in 2016 – and Calgary's housing market along with it

Alberta's energy sector has only felt the tip of the blade, say experts, who anticipate the worse is still to come.

"Unfortunately, the story is not positive – and it's not over for Calgary by any stretch of the imagination," said CIBC deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal.

"I think that 2015 was just the pre-show, and we're going to see most of the damage, at least, in the first of half of 2016."

Construction declines won't diminish market, says industry

Calgary's new housing market in 2016 will be characterized by a gradual slowdown, with highlights coming from first-time buyers, a resurgent luxury sector and continued multi-family growth, say industry insiders.

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) forecasts a 16 per cent decline in Calgary housing starts to 10,000 units, following a 23.9 per cent decline Calgary in 2015.
For single-family homes, that means only 4,000 starts this year — the lowest since 1988 – from 4,138 in 2015.

Multi-family starts are predicted to fall to 6,000 units from 8,895 last year.

Despite the slowdown, Canadian Home Builder's Association-Calgary president Wendy Jabusch believes Calgary's housing market will continue to remain healthy, especially as net-migration numbers to the city continue to be positive. The Conference Board of Canada forecasts levels will total 11,747 in 2016, compared with 14,951 in 2015.