Downtown office market begins bounce back

People who have lived and worked in Calgary for a long time know that the downtown office market is a great barometer of what's happening in the city's overall economy.

For the past couple of years, record vacancy rates in the heart of the city have made headline news, not only in Calgary, but nationally.

However, a recent report by commercial real estate firm Avison Young suggests we've hit the bottom and there's nowhere to go but up.

Calgary's commercial real estate market could be poised for a rebound in 2018

All eyes will be on Calgary's commercial real estate market this year, with hopes that the downtown office sector, which continued to struggle in 2017, will rebound in 2018.

The office market has grabbed everyone's attention over the past three years, as vacancy rates have soared to historically high levels following the collapse of oil prices and the subsequent waves of layoffs that ravaged employment ranks in downtown Calgary. Thousands of people were cut loose, and a vast amount of office space suddenly became vacant in the downtown core.

Is there a glimmer of hope in Calgary's struggling downtown office market?

A new report by Avison Young suggests the market may be turning the corner following a brutal two years of ploughing through a recession.

The vacancy rate in the core was 23.9 per cent in the first quarter of the year, up from 17.6 per cent a year ago, but basically unchanged from year-end 2016.

"The first-quarter 2017 vacancy level actually represented positive news as the market took its first steps in halting its overall downward trend," said the commercial real estate company.

Todd Throndson, principal and managing director of Avison Young's Calgary office, says the downtown office market appears to have hit a pause in its rising vacancy.

Calgary's core office market could see vacancy increases that endure even after a recovery in oil prices

According to a new report from commercial real estate firm Cushman and Wakefield, the negative effects of the drop in oil prices could remain for up to a year after a rebound.

"Although the brunt of the declining oil price was felt in Q1 2015, it is expected that negative absorption will continue throughout 2015," said the report.

"Net rates will drop in the CBD (central business district), while the suburbs will be impacted to a lesser extent. History would suggest that we can expect tenants to begin taking back space once oil prices strengthen and the market regains confidence."