Oct. 01, 2024 | CREB
New listing growth driven by higher-priced homes
Calgary, Alberta, October 1, 2024 – Rising sales in the upper price ranges were not enough to offset the pullback occurring in the lower price ranges, as sales in September were 2,003, 17 per cent below last year's record high. Despite the decline, sales this month were still over 16 per cent higher than levels traditionally achieved in September.
“We are starting to see a rise in new listings in our market. However, most of the listing growth is occurring in the higher price ranges,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “While demand has stayed strong across all price ranges, the limited choice for lower-priced homes has likely prevented stronger sales in our market. While the challenges in the lower price ranges are not expected to change, improved supply combined with lower lending rates should keep demand strong throughout the fall, but without the extreme seller market conditions that contributed to the rapid price growth earlier this year.”
New listings in September rose to 3,687 units, the highest September total since 2008. This rise in new listings compared to sales did support some inventory growth. September inventory levels pushed up to 5,064 units, nearly double the exceptionally low levels reported in the spring, but remain below the 6,000 units we typically see in September.
Improving inventory levels compared to sales is continuing to shift our market toward more balanced conditions. In September, the months of supply reached 2.5 months. While this is a gain over last year’s record low, conditions are still tilted in favour of the seller.
Additional supply in the market has taken some of the pressure off home prices over the past few months, following stronger-than-expected gains throughout the spring. In September, the unadjusted benchmark price was $596,900, slightly lower than last month but over five per cent higher than last year’s levels. Year-over-year gains ranged from nearly nine per cent growth for detached homes to nearly 14 per cent gains in the apartment condominium market. The gains for each property type outpaced the growth in total residential prices, mostly due to the shifting composition of sales.
Detached
The nine per cent growth in sales over $700,000 was not enough to offset the steep pullbacks reported for homes priced below $600,000, causing September sales to total 942 units, a 17 per cent decline over last year. Improved sales for higher-priced homes were possible thanks to rising new listings, as that segment of the market is starting to demonstrate more balanced conditions for homes priced above $700,000.
As of September, the unadjusted detached benchmark price was $757,100, a slight decline over last month, but nearly nine per cent higher than levels reported last year. It is not unusual to see some monthly adjustments in the fall, especially following stronger gains in the spring. With tighter conditions being experienced for lower-priced products, price growth has also ranged within the detached sector. The North East and East districts continue to report the largest year-over-year price gains.
Semi-Detached
September reported 299 new listings and 182 sales, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to trend up over last month to nearly 61 per cent. Despite the gain over the past several months, the improvements in new listings relative to sales have supported rising inventory levels. However, with less than 400 units available, inventory levels remain nearly 33 per cent below long-term trends for September.
Like the other property types, recent gains in new listings are causing the months of supply to improve over last year's levels. However, with just over two months of supply in September, conditions continue to favour the seller. Following strong gains in the spring, in September, the unadjusted benchmark price eased slightly over last month, but at a price of $678,400, levels are over nine per cent higher than last year at this time.
Over 600 new listings came onto the market in September, where over 70 per cent of the new listings were priced above $400,000. While new listings improved across most districts, 34 per cent of the new listings were in the North and South district, likely a reflection of the new home activity occurring in those areas. Sales in September totalled 377 units, slightly lower than last year's levels.
Inventories in September rose to 747 units, a significant improvement over the previous two years, but still below long-term trends. Nonetheless, the rise in inventory relative to sales did cause the months of supply to increase to nearly two months. Conditions continue to favour the seller, but improved choice did slow the pace of price growth. The unadjusted benchmark price in September was $459,200, 10 per cent higher than September 2023 levels.
Apartment Condominium
Strong gains in new listings continued into September, with 993 units entering the market. At the same time, sales dropped to 502 units, causing the sales-to-new listings ratio to drop to 50 per cent and inventories to rise to 1,623 units. Of the inventory in the market, over 72 per cent was priced above $300,000, a significant shift compared to last year, where less than 58 per cent of the listings were above that range.
Gain in supply compared to sales caused the months of supply to rise to 3.2 months, the highest level seen since the end of 2021. Improving supply in the new home market is likely contributing to the rise in supply and has taken some of the pressure off home prices. In September, the unadjusted benchmark price was $345,000, 14 per cent higher than last year at this time. Year-to-date prices are still averaging a year-over-year gain of 17 per cent.
Airdrie
Thanks to a boost in new listings relative to sales, inventory levels trended up in September, reaching 349 units, an improvement over the persistently low levels reported over the previous three years. With 151 sales in September, the months of supply rose to 2.3 months. While conditions still favour the seller, it is a significant improvement over the under two months of supply that has persisted since the start of 2021.
Improved supply choice has taken some of the pressure off home prices. However, with an unadjusted benchmark price of $551,000 in September, prices are nearly seven per cent higher than last year.
Over the past few months, easing sales did not offset earlier gains, as year-to-date sales were nearly six per cent higher than last year. However, like other areas, new listings in Cochrane have been on the rise, and the 50 per cent sales-to-new listings ratio this month helped support a gain in inventory levels. With 174 units in inventory and 58 sales, the months of supply in September rose to three months, the first time it has reached three months since the end of 2020.
While supply levels are improving, they remain well below long-term trends. Nonetheless, the gain prevented any further upward pressure on home prices this month. In September, the unadjusted benchmark price was $578,300, similar to last month but nearly nine per cent higher than last year.
A boost in new listings compared to sales supported inventory gains. While inventory levels have trended up over the past three months, the 106 units still represent exceptionally low levels for the town.
The months of supply reached two months in September, something we have not seen consistently since early 2021. While this is a significant improvement from levels seen in the spring, conditions still favour the seller. The unadjusted benchmark price in September reached $630,300, nearly one per cent higher than last month and nine per cent higher than levels reported last year.
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Economic Analysis
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